BY 2030 A QUARTER OF ALL MILES COULD BE DRIVEN IN SELF-DRIVING E-CARS
By 2030, around a quarter of all miles driven in the U.S. could be in shared autonomous electric vehicles, which will offer consumers in large cities the lowest-cost, most convenient form of transportation, according to new research.
The convergence of three trends — ride sharing, autonomous driving, and vehicle electrification — create a far more compelling economic case than any of these forces alone, according to the study by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Due to their ability to cut travel costs by 60%, shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) could shift about 25% of miles traveled from private automobiles — creating enormous benefits for consumers as well as causing major disruption to the automotive industry.
Cities will benefit from less congestion and cleaner air, but could be disadvantaged by falling ridership on public transit, fear of which could result in some cities proactively trying to regulate the number of SAEVs on the road.
While total vehicle demand will only be affected slightly, by 2030 more than 5 million conventional cars per year could be replaced by a combination of fully autonomous electric vehicles for urban fleets and partially autonomous cars for personal use. Cities will benefit from less congestion and cleaner air, but could be disadvantaged by falling ridership on public transit, fear of which could result in some cities proactively trying to regulate the number of SAEVs on the road.
It undermines the current industry business model, with its focus on engine technology and its long product cycles, and opens the market to a range of new competitors. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of industry assets could turn into liabilities. Dealers will be less relevant as fleets make up a much bigger portion of sales. Current aftermarket businesses will take a hit because SAEVs will require less maintenance and have fewer accidents. But at the same time, whole new businesses will develop to manage large urban fleets and service them daily.